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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (9): e0239647 Nephropedia Template TP
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Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A New York state modelling study #MMPMID32970745
Hoffman BU
PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (9): e0239647 PMID32970745show ga
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to simulate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS) based on data collected between March 4 and April 28, 2020. Simulations predict that undocumented infections significantly contribute to infectivity, NPIs are effective in reducing morbidity and mortality, and relaxation >50% of NPIs from initial lock-down levels may result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, the risks of significantly reducing NPIs should be carefully considered. This study employs modelling to simulate fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.