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10.1371/journal.pone.0238684 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0238684 32970716!7514094!32970716     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (9): e0238684 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32970716|t=2020. The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea |pdf=|usr=}}{{32970716}} gab.com Text The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea JO: PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32970716 #FOAvip BACKGROUND: In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics. METHODS: A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. FINDINGS: The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4.6180 and behavior change rate was 2.6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. INTERPRETATION: Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic. Twit Text FOAVip The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea ????PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32970716 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32970716 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32970716}}</ref> The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea #MMPMID32970716 Kim S; Ko Y; Kim YJ; Jung E PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (9): e0238684 PMID32970716show ga BACKGROUND: In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics. METHODS: A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. FINDINGS: The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4.6180 and behavior change rate was 2.6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. INTERPRETATION: Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic. |*Health Behavior[MESH] |*Social Isolation[MESH] |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control/*methods[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/mortality/*prevention & control/*transmission[MESH] |Forecasting[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/mortality/*prevention & control/*transmission[MESH] |Republic of Korea/epidemiology[MESH]The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-1(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing