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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Transbound+Emerg+Dis 2021 ; 68 (3): 1700-1703 Nephropedia Template TP
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Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic #MMPMID32969591
Sugiura K; Kure K; Kato T; Kyutoku F; Haga T
Transbound Emerg Dis 2021[May]; 68 (3): 1700-1703 PMID32969591show ga
Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%-24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%-2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%-0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%-0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%-0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%-0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.