J Infect 2020[Nov]; 81 (5): 797-801 PMID32956730show ga
OBJECTIVES: The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. METHODS: We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1*03 (95%CI 1*03-1*04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1*08 and SMR=1*09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0*98 (95%CI 0*98-0*99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.
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J+Infect 2020 ; 81 (5): 797-801
