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10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.014 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.014 32954094!7485523!32954094     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Infect+Dis+Model 2020 ; 5 (ä): 681-690 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32954094|t=2020. Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic |pdf=|usr=}}{{32954094}} gab.com Text Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic JO: Infect Dis Model http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32954094 #FOAvip The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later since the end of March 2020. There is also a brief intermediate period of exponential growth. During the second quadratic growth phase, the characteristic time of the growth is about eight times shorter than in the beginning, which can be understood as the occurrence of separate hotspots. Quadratic behavior can be motivated by peripheral growth when further spreading occurs only on the outskirts of an infected region. We also study numerical solutions of a simple epidemic model, where the spatial extend of the system is taken into account. To model the delayed onset outside China together with the early one in China within a single model with minimal assumptions, we adopt an initial condition of several hotspots, of which one reaches saturation much earlier than the others. At each site, quadratic growth commences when the local number of infections has reached a certain saturation level. The total number of deaths does then indeed follow a piecewise quadratic behavior. Twit Text FOAVip Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic ????Infect Dis Model http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32954094 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32954094 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32954094}}</ref> Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic #MMPMID32954094 Brandenburg A Infect Dis Model 2020[]; 5 (ä): 681-690 PMID32954094show ga The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later since the end of March 2020. There is also a brief intermediate period of exponential growth. During the second quadratic growth phase, the characteristic time of the growth is about eight times shorter than in the beginning, which can be understood as the occurrence of separate hotspots. Quadratic behavior can be motivated by peripheral growth when further spreading occurs only on the outskirts of an infected region. We also study numerical solutions of a simple epidemic model, where the spatial extend of the system is taken into account. To model the delayed onset outside China together with the early one in China within a single model with minimal assumptions, we adopt an initial condition of several hotspots, of which one reaches saturation much earlier than the others. At each site, quadratic growth commences when the local number of infections has reached a certain saturation level. The total number of deaths does then indeed follow a piecewise quadratic behavior. äPiecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing