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10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003055 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003055 32948617!7503195!32948617     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 235.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 235.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 235.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 235.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 235.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       BMJ+Glob+Health 2020 ; 5 (9): ä Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32948617|t=2020. Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters |pdf=|usr=}}{{32948617}} gab.com Text Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters JO: BMJ Glob Health http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32948617 #FOAvip INTRODUCTION: Since its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic in mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as of May 2020, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented healthcare system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practised may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centres. METHODS: To address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the African region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under scenarios that cover different population sizes, urban status, effectiveness and coverage of social distancing, contact tracing and usage of cloth face mask. RESULTS: We showed that when implemented early, 50% coverage of contact tracing and face mask, with 33% effective social distancing policies can bringing the epidemic to a manageable level for all population sizes and settings we assessed. Relaxing of social distancing in urban settings from 33% to 25% could be matched by introduction and maintenance of face mask use at 43%. CONCLUSIONS: In SSA countries with limited healthcare workforce, hospital resources and intensive care units, a robust system of social distancing, contact tracing and face mask use could yield in outcomes that prevent several millions of infections and thousands of deaths across the continent. Twit Text FOAVip Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters ????BMJ Glob Health http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32948617 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32948617 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32948617}}</ref> Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters #MMPMID32948617 Siraj A; Worku A; Berhane K; Aregawi M; Eshetu M; Mirkuzie A; Berhane Y; Siraj D BMJ Glob Health 2020[Sep]; 5 (9): ä PMID32948617show ga INTRODUCTION: Since its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic in mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as of May 2020, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented healthcare system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practised may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centres. METHODS: To address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the African region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under scenarios that cover different population sizes, urban status, effectiveness and coverage of social distancing, contact tracing and usage of cloth face mask. RESULTS: We showed that when implemented early, 50% coverage of contact tracing and face mask, with 33% effective social distancing policies can bringing the epidemic to a manageable level for all population sizes and settings we assessed. Relaxing of social distancing in urban settings from 33% to 25% could be matched by introduction and maintenance of face mask use at 43%. CONCLUSIONS: In SSA countries with limited healthcare workforce, hospital resources and intensive care units, a robust system of social distancing, contact tracing and face mask use could yield in outcomes that prevent several millions of infections and thousands of deaths across the continent. |Africa/epidemiology[MESH] |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19/*epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH] |Contact Tracing[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH] |Epidemiologic Methods[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Masks[MESH] |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*prevention & control[MESH] |Quarantine[MESH]Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large popu(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing