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Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19 #MMPMID32917290
Biggerstaff M; Cowling BJ; Cucunuba ZM; Dinh L; Ferguson NM; Gao H; Hill V; Imai N; Johansson MA; Kada S; Morgan O; Pastore Y Piontti A; Polonsky JA; Prasad PV; Quandelacy TM; Rambaut A; Tappero JW; Vandemaele KA; Vespignani A; Warmbrod KL; Wong JY
Emerg Infect Dis 2020[Nov]; 26 (11): e1-e14 PMID32917290show ga
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.