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10.1371/journal.pone.0238410 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0238410 32915815!7485826!32915815     free     free     free Warning: file_get_contents(https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&id=32915815&cmd=llinks): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 215 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (9): e0238410 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32915815|t=2020. COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s) |pdf=|usr=}}{{32915815}} gab.com Text COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s) JO: PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32915815 #FOAvip Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mortality curves comparisons and real-time short-term forecasts for about 100 countries. Here, the approach is applied to compare the mortality trajectories of second-line and front-line European countries facing the COVID-19 epidemic wave. Using data up to mid-April, we show that the second-line countries generally followed relatively mild mortality curves rather than fast and severe ones. Thus, the continuation, after mid-April, of the COVID-19 wave across Europe was likely to be mitigated and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave (this prediction is corroborated by posterior data). Twit Text FOAVip COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s) ????PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32915815 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32915815 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32915815}}</ref> COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s) #MMPMID32915815 Soubeyrand S; Ribaud M; Baudrot V; Allard D; Pommeret D; Roques L PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (9): e0238410 PMID32915815show ga Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mortality curves comparisons and real-time short-term forecasts for about 100 countries. Here, the approach is applied to compare the mortality trajectories of second-line and front-line European countries facing the COVID-19 epidemic wave. Using data up to mid-April, we show that the second-line countries generally followed relatively mild mortality curves rather than fast and severe ones. Thus, the continuation, after mid-April, of the COVID-19 wave across Europe was likely to be mitigated and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave (this prediction is corroborated by posterior data). |*Models, Theoretical[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*mortality[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH]COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) pas(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing