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10.1017/dmp.2020.321

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/dmp.2020.321
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32900400      Disaster+Med+Public+Health+Prep 2022 ; 16 (1): 40-50
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  • Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India #MMPMID32900400
  • Shah PV
  • Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2022[Feb]; 16 (1): 40-50 PMID32900400show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: We study the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India and model the epidemic to guide those involved in formulating policy and building health-care capacity. METHODS: This effect is studied using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. We estimate the infection rate using a least square method with Poisson noise and calculate the reproduction number. RESULTS: The infection rate is estimated to be 0.270 and the reproduction number to be 2.70. The approximate peak of the epidemic will be August 9, 2020. A 25% drop in infection rate will delay the peak by 11 d for a 1-mo intervention period. The total infected individuals in India will be 9% of the total population. CONCLUSIONS: The predictions are sensitive to changes in the behavior of people and their practice of social distancing.
  • |*COVID-19/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |*Epidemics[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |India/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]


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