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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Disaster+Med+Public+Health+Prep 2022 ; 16 (1): 40-50 Nephropedia Template TP
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Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India #MMPMID32900400
Shah PV
Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2022[Feb]; 16 (1): 40-50 PMID32900400show ga
OBJECTIVES: We study the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India and model the epidemic to guide those involved in formulating policy and building health-care capacity. METHODS: This effect is studied using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. We estimate the infection rate using a least square method with Poisson noise and calculate the reproduction number. RESULTS: The infection rate is estimated to be 0.270 and the reproduction number to be 2.70. The approximate peak of the epidemic will be August 9, 2020. A 25% drop in infection rate will delay the peak by 11 d for a 1-mo intervention period. The total infected individuals in India will be 9% of the total population. CONCLUSIONS: The predictions are sensitive to changes in the behavior of people and their practice of social distancing.