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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Int+J+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 100 (ä): 193-195 Nephropedia Template TP
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Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19: The Italian experience #MMPMID32898670
Silverio A; Di Maio M; Ciccarelli M; Carrizzo A; Vecchione C; Galasso G
Int J Infect Dis 2020[Nov]; 100 (ä): 193-195 PMID32898670show ga
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020). METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region. RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R(2) = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R(2) = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.