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10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e321

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e321
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32893522      J+Korean+Med+Sci 2020 ; 35 (35): e321
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  • Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea #MMPMID32893522
  • Min KD; Kang H; Lee JY; Jeon S; Cho SI
  • J Korean Med Sci 2020[Sep]; 35 (35): e321 PMID32893522show ga
  • BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed significant global public health challenges and created a substantial economic burden. Korea has experienced an extensive outbreak, which was linked to a religion-related super-spreading event. However, the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, spring semester postponing, and extensive testing and contact tracing controlled the epidemic. Herein, we estimated the effectiveness of each NPI using a simulation model. METHODS: A compartment model with a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized structure was employed. Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). Moreover, we conducted scenario analyses by adjusting the parameters to estimate the effectiveness of NPI. RESULTS: Relaxed social distancing among adults would have increased the number of cases 27.4-fold until the end of March. Spring semester non-postponement would have increased the number of cases 1.7-fold among individuals aged 0-19, while lower quarantine and detection rates would have increased the number of cases 1.4-fold. CONCLUSION: Among the three NPI measures, social distancing in adults showed the highest effectiveness. The substantial effect of social distancing should be considered when preparing for the 2nd wave of COVID-19.
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/prevention & control/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Communicable Disease Control/*methods[MESH]
  • |Computer Simulation[MESH]
  • |Contact Tracing/*methods[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Environmental Exposure/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Markov Chains[MESH]
  • |Mass Screening/*methods[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Monte Carlo Method[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Physical Distancing[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Public Health Practice/legislation & jurisprudence[MESH]
  • |Republic of Korea[MESH]


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