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10.1073/pnas.2014385117 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1073/pnas.2014385117 32887803!7533690!32887803     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A 2020 ; 117 (39): 24575-24580 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32887803|t=2020. Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve |pdf=|usr=}}{{32887803}} gab.com Text Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve JO: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32887803 #FOAvip In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, "counties"). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces county by county, according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide reopening and reclosing, according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. For trigger levels that result in the same number of COVID-19 cases between the two strategies, the local strategy causes significantly fewer person-days of closure, even under high intercounty travel scenarios. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise when county triggers are not coordinated and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage, but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that pandemic planning for the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider local strategies for reopening and reclosing. Twit Text FOAVip Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve ????Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32887803 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32887803 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32887803}}</ref> Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve #MMPMID32887803 Karatayev VA; Anand M; Bauch CT Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020[Sep]; 117 (39): 24575-24580 PMID32887803show ga In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, "counties"). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces county by county, according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide reopening and reclosing, according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. For trigger levels that result in the same number of COVID-19 cases between the two strategies, the local strategy causes significantly fewer person-days of closure, even under high intercounty travel scenarios. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise when county triggers are not coordinated and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage, but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that pandemic planning for the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider local strategies for reopening and reclosing. |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Cities/epidemiology[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control/methods/*organization & administration[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis/epidemiology/*prevention & control/*transmission[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Models, Statistical[MESH] |Ontario/epidemiology[MESH] |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis/epidemiology/*prevention & control/*transmission[MESH] |Prevalence[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH] |Stochastic Processes[MESH]Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVI(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing