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10.1371/journal.pone.0237627 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0237627 32877420!7467267!32877420     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (9): e0237627 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32877420|t=2020. COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil |pdf=|usr=}}{{32877420}} gab.com Text COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil JO: PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32877420 #FOAvip The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy. Twit Text FOAVip COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil ????PLoS One http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32877420 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32877420 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32877420}}</ref> COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil #MMPMID32877420 Lyra W; do Nascimento JD Jr; Belkhiria J; de Almeida L; Chrispim PPM; de Andrade I PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (9): e0237627 PMID32877420show ga The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy. |*Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Age Factors[MESH] |Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification[MESH] |Brazil/epidemiology[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*pathology/transmission/virology[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Markov Chains[MESH] |Monte Carlo Method[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*pathology/transmission/virology[MESH] |Quarantine[MESH]COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social dis(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing