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Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan #MMPMID32875961
Ali M; Imran M; Khan A
J Biol Dyn 2020[Dec]; 14 (1): 730-747 PMID32875961show ga
In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. The pre-lock down value of R0 is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. Using this analysis, we project the epidemic curve. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid-September, 2020, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700, 000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July, 2020, with the maximum active cases being around 120, 000. We note that social distancing measures and medication will help flatten the curve; however, without the reintroduction of further lock down, it would be very difficult to make R0 < 1 .
J+Biol+Dyn 2020 ; 14 (1): 730-747
