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10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.007 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.007 32875176!7453227!32875176     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Infect+Dis+Model 2020 ; 5 (ä): 635-651 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32875176|t=2020. Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number |pdf=|usr=}}{{32875176}} gab.com Text Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number JO: Infect Dis Model http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32875176 #FOAvip We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Twit Text FOAVip Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number ????Infect Dis Model http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32875176 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32875176 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32875176}}</ref> Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number #MMPMID32875176 Buckman SR; Glick R; Lansing KJ; Petrosky-Nadeau N; Seitelman LM Infect Dis Model 2020[]; 5 (ä): 635-651 PMID32875176show ga We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. äReplicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied r(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing