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10.1503/cmaj.201521 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1503/cmaj.201521 32873541!7647484!32873541     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 233.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       CMAJ 2020 ; 192 (44): E1347-E1356 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32873541|t=2020. Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study |pdf=|usr=}}{{32873541}} gab.com Text Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study JO: CMAJ http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32873541 #FOAvip BACKGROUND: To mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), jurisdictions worldwide ramped down nonemergent surgeries, creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to estimate the size of the nonemergent surgical backlog during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada, and the time and resources required to clear the backlog. METHODS: We used 6 Ontario or Canadian population administrative sources to obtain data covering part or all of the period between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 13, 2020, on historical volumes and operating room throughput distributions by surgery type and region, and lengths of stay in ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We used time series forecasting, queuing models and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the size of the backlog and clearance time for a +10% (+1 day per week at 50% capacity) surge scenario. RESULTS: Between Mar. 15 and June 13, 2020, the estimated backlog in Ontario was 148 364 surgeries (95% prediction interval 124 508-174 589), an average weekly increase of 11 413 surgeries. Estimated backlog clearance time is 84 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI] 46-145), with an estimated weekly throughput of 717 patients (95% CI 326-1367) requiring 719 operating room hours (95% CI 431-1038), 265 ward beds (95% CI 87-678) and 9 ICU beds (95% CI 4-20) per week. INTERPRETATION: The magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises serious implications for the recovery phase in Ontario. Our framework for modelling surgical backlog recovery can be adapted to other jurisdictions, using local data to assist with planning. Twit Text FOAVip Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study ????CMAJ http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32873541 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32873541 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32873541}}</ref> Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study #MMPMID32873541 Wang J; Vahid S; Eberg M; Milroy S; Milkovich J; Wright FC; Hunter A; Kalladeen R; Zanchetta C; Wijeysundera HC; Irish J CMAJ 2020[Nov]; 192 (44): E1347-E1356 PMID32873541show ga BACKGROUND: To mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), jurisdictions worldwide ramped down nonemergent surgeries, creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to estimate the size of the nonemergent surgical backlog during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada, and the time and resources required to clear the backlog. METHODS: We used 6 Ontario or Canadian population administrative sources to obtain data covering part or all of the period between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 13, 2020, on historical volumes and operating room throughput distributions by surgery type and region, and lengths of stay in ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We used time series forecasting, queuing models and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the size of the backlog and clearance time for a +10% (+1 day per week at 50% capacity) surge scenario. RESULTS: Between Mar. 15 and June 13, 2020, the estimated backlog in Ontario was 148 364 surgeries (95% prediction interval 124 508-174 589), an average weekly increase of 11 413 surgeries. Estimated backlog clearance time is 84 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI] 46-145), with an estimated weekly throughput of 717 patients (95% CI 326-1367) requiring 719 operating room hours (95% CI 431-1038), 265 ward beds (95% CI 87-678) and 9 ICU beds (95% CI 4-20) per week. INTERPRETATION: The magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises serious implications for the recovery phase in Ontario. Our framework for modelling surgical backlog recovery can be adapted to other jurisdictions, using local data to assist with planning. |*Coronavirus Infections[MESH] |*Pandemics[MESH] |*Pneumonia, Viral[MESH] |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |Cardiac Surgical Procedures/*statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Elective Surgical Procedures/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Forecasting[MESH] |Hospital Bed Capacity/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Intensive Care Units/supply & distribution[MESH] |Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Models, Statistical[MESH] |Neoplasms/*surgery[MESH] |Ontario[MESH] |Operating Rooms/supply & distribution[MESH] |Organ Transplantation/*statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Pediatrics/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH] |Time Factors[MESH]Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time se(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing