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10.7717/peerj.9649 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.7717/peerj.9649 32844061!7416720!32844061     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 213.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       PeerJ 2020 ; 8 (ä): e9649 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32844061|t=2020. A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics |pdf=|usr=}}{{32844061}} gab.com Text A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics JO: PeerJ http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32844061 #FOAvip The purpose of a forecast, in making an estimate about the future, is to give people information to act on. In the case of a coupled human system, a change in human behavior caused by the forecast can alter the course of events that were the subject of the forecast. In this context, the forecast is an integral part of the coupled human system, with two-way feedback between forecast output and human behavior. However, forecasting programs generally do not examine how the forecast might affect the system in question. This study examines how such a coupled system works using a model of viral infection-the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model-when the model is used in a forecasting context. Human behavior is modified by making the contact rate responsive to other dynamics, including forecasts, of the SIR system. This modification creates two-way feedback between the forecast and the infection dynamics. Results show that a faster rate of response by a population to system dynamics or forecasts leads to a significant decline in peak infections. Responding to a forecast leads to a lower infection peak than responding to current infection levels. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to either higher or lower peak infections depending on whether the forecast under-or over-estimates the peak. The direction of inaccuracy in a forecast determines whether the outcome is better or worse for the population. While work is still needed to constrain model functional forms, forecast feedback can be an important component of epidemic dynamics that should be considered in response planning. Twit Text FOAVip A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics ????PeerJ http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32844061 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32844061 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32844061}}</ref> A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics #MMPMID32844061 Record NR; Pershing A PeerJ 2020[]; 8 (ä): e9649 PMID32844061show ga The purpose of a forecast, in making an estimate about the future, is to give people information to act on. In the case of a coupled human system, a change in human behavior caused by the forecast can alter the course of events that were the subject of the forecast. In this context, the forecast is an integral part of the coupled human system, with two-way feedback between forecast output and human behavior. However, forecasting programs generally do not examine how the forecast might affect the system in question. This study examines how such a coupled system works using a model of viral infection-the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model-when the model is used in a forecasting context. Human behavior is modified by making the contact rate responsive to other dynamics, including forecasts, of the SIR system. This modification creates two-way feedback between the forecast and the infection dynamics. Results show that a faster rate of response by a population to system dynamics or forecasts leads to a significant decline in peak infections. Responding to a forecast leads to a lower infection peak than responding to current infection levels. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to either higher or lower peak infections depending on whether the forecast under-or over-estimates the peak. The direction of inaccuracy in a forecast determines whether the outcome is better or worse for the population. While work is still needed to constrain model functional forms, forecast feedback can be an important component of epidemic dynamics that should be considered in response planning. äA note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing