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10.1093/jtm/taaa141

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1093/jtm/taaa141
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32841354!7499710!32841354
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32841354      J+Travel+Med 2020 ; 27 (8): ä
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  • Strategies at points of entry to reduce importation risk of COVID-19 cases and reopen travel #MMPMID32841354
  • Dickens BL; Koo JR; Lim JT; Sun H; Clapham HE; Wilder-Smith A; Cook AR
  • J Travel Med 2020[Dec]; 27 (8): ä PMID32841354show ga
  • BACKGROUND: With more countries exiting lockdown, public health safety requires screening measures at international travel entry points that can prevent the reintroduction or importation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2. Here, we estimate the number of cases captured, quarantining days averted and secondary cases expected to occur with screening interventions. METHODS: To estimate active case exportation risk from 153 countries with recorded coronavirus disease-2019 cases and deaths, we created a simple data-driven framework to calculate the number of infectious and upcoming infectious individuals out of 100 000 000 potential travellers from each country, and assessed six importation risk reduction strategies; Strategy 1 (S1) has no screening on entry, S2 tests all travellers and isolates test-positives where those who test negative at 7 days are permitted entry, S3 the equivalent but for a 14 day period, S4 quarantines all travellers for 7 days where all are subsequently permitted entry, S5 the equivalent for 14 days and S6 the testing of all travellers and prevention of entry for those who test positive. RESULTS: The average reduction in case importation across countries relative to S1 is 90.2% for S2, 91.7% for S3, 55.4% for S4, 91.2% for S5 and 77.2% for S6. An average of 79.6% of infected travellers are infectious upon arrival. For the top 100 exporting countries, an 88.2% average reduction in secondary cases is expected through S2 with the 7-day isolation of test-positives, increasing to 92.1% for S3 for 14-day isolation. A substantially smaller reduction of 30.0% is expected for 7-day all traveller quarantining, increasing to 84.3% for 14-day all traveller quarantining. CONCLUSIONS: The testing and isolation of test-positives should be implemented provided good testing practices are in place. If testing is not feasible, quarantining for a minimum of 14 days is recommended with strict adherence measures in place.
  • |*COVID-19/diagnosis/epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |*Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence/organization & administration[MESH]
  • |*Communicable Diseases, Imported/diagnosis/epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Air Travel/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Airports/organization & administration[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Testing/*methods[MESH]
  • |Epidemiological Monitoring[MESH]
  • |Global Health[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Mass Screening/*methods[MESH]
  • |Quarantine/*methods[MESH]
  • |Risk Assessment/methods/statistics & numerical data[MESH]


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