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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Appl+Math+Lett 2021 ; 111 (ä): 106617 Nephropedia Template TP
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Simulating the spread of COVID-19 via a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion #MMPMID32834475
Viguerie A; Lorenzo G; Auricchio F; Baroli D; Hughes TJR; Patton A; Reali A; Yankeelov TE; Veneziani A
Appl Math Lett 2021[Jan]; 111 (ä): 106617 PMID32834475show ga
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources.