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10.1017/S0950268820001843

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/S0950268820001843
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32829732!7468689!32829732
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32829732      Epidemiol+Infect 2020 ; 148 (ä): e188
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  • Risk clusters of COVID-19 transmission in northeastern Brazil: prospective space-time modelling #MMPMID32829732
  • Gomes DS; Andrade LA; Ribeiro CJN; Peixoto MVS; Lima SVMA; Duque AM; Cirilo TM; Goes MAO; Lima AGCF; Santos MB; Araujo KCGM; Santos AD
  • Epidemiol Infect 2020[Aug]; 148 (ä): e188 PMID32829732show ga
  • This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceara and Maranhao. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceara state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.
  • |*Spatio-Temporal Analysis[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |Brazil/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Cities[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Linear Models[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*transmission[MESH]


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