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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 229.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Epidemiol+Infect 2020 ; 148 (ä): e188 Nephropedia Template TP
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Risk clusters of COVID-19 transmission in northeastern Brazil: prospective space-time modelling #MMPMID32829732
Gomes DS; Andrade LA; Ribeiro CJN; Peixoto MVS; Lima SVMA; Duque AM; Cirilo TM; Goes MAO; Lima AGCF; Santos MB; Araujo KCGM; Santos AD
Epidemiol Infect 2020[Aug]; 148 (ä): e188 PMID32829732show ga
This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceara and Maranhao. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceara state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.