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10.1073/pnas.2005476117 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1073/pnas.2005476117 32826332!7486725!32826332     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 215.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 215.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A 2020 ; 117 (36): 22597-22602 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32826332|t=2020. Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States |pdf=|usr=}}{{32826332}} gab.com Text Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States JO: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32826332 #FOAvip By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number of unobserved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections during its initial invasion of the United States remains unknown. We developed an approach for estimating the number of unobserved infections based on data that are commonly available shortly after the emergence of a new infectious disease. The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 March, we estimated that 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) infections occurred in the United States by this date. By comparing the model's predictions of symptomatic infections with local cases reported over time, we obtained daily estimates of the proportion of symptomatic infections detected by surveillance. This revealed that detection of symptomatic infections decreased throughout February as exponential growth of infections outpaced increases in testing. Between 24 February and 12 March, we estimated an increase in detection of symptomatic infections, which was strongly correlated (median: 0.98; 95% PPI: 0.66 to 0.98) with increases in testing. These results suggest that testing was a major limiting factor in assessing the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during its initial invasion of the United States. Twit Text FOAVip Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States ????Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32826332 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32826332 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32826332}}</ref> Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States #MMPMID32826332 Perkins TA; Cavany SM; Moore SM; Oidtman RJ; Lerch A; Poterek M Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020[Sep]; 117 (36): 22597-22602 PMID32826332show ga By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number of unobserved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections during its initial invasion of the United States remains unknown. We developed an approach for estimating the number of unobserved infections based on data that are commonly available shortly after the emergence of a new infectious disease. The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 March, we estimated that 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) infections occurred in the United States by this date. By comparing the model's predictions of symptomatic infections with local cases reported over time, we obtained daily estimates of the proportion of symptomatic infections detected by surveillance. This revealed that detection of symptomatic infections decreased throughout February as exponential growth of infections outpaced increases in testing. Between 24 February and 12 March, we estimated an increase in detection of symptomatic infections, which was strongly correlated (median: 0.98; 95% PPI: 0.66 to 0.98) with increases in testing. These results suggest that testing was a major limiting factor in assessing the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during its initial invasion of the United States. |*Models, Theoretical[MESH] |Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |COVID-19 Testing[MESH] |Clinical Laboratory Techniques[MESH] |Communicable Diseases, Emerging/diagnosis/epidemiology/*transmission[MESH] |Community-Acquired Infections[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis/epidemiology/*transmission[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis/epidemiology/*transmission[MESH] |Public Health Surveillance[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing