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10.1371/journal.pone.0237901

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0237901
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32817697!7444593!32817697
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32817697      PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (8): e0237901
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  • Spatial and temporal regularization to estimate COVID-19 reproduction number R(t): Promoting piecewise smoothness via convex optimization #MMPMID32817697
  • Abry P; Pustelnik N; Roux S; Jensen P; Flandrin P; Gribonval R; Lucas CG; Guichard E; Borgnat P; Garnier N
  • PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (8): e0237901 PMID32817697show ga
  • Among the different indicators that quantify the spread of an epidemic such as the on-going COVID-19, stands first the reproduction number which measures how many people can be contaminated by an infected person. In order to permit the monitoring of the evolution of this number, a new estimation procedure is proposed here, assuming a well-accepted model for current incidence data, based on past observations. The novelty of the proposed approach is twofold: 1) the estimation of the reproduction number is achieved by convex optimization within a proximal-based inverse problem formulation, with constraints aimed at promoting piecewise smoothness; 2) the approach is developed in a multivariate setting, allowing for the simultaneous handling of multiple time series attached to different geographical regions, together with a spatial (graph-based) regularization of their evolutions in time. The effectiveness of the approach is first supported by simulations, and two main applications to real COVID-19 data are then discussed. The first one refers to the comparative evolution of the reproduction number for a number of countries, while the second one focuses on French departments and their joint analysis, leading to dynamic maps revealing the temporal co-evolution of their reproduction numbers.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |*Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |*Spatio-Temporal Analysis[MESH]
  • |Algorithms[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Databases, Factual[MESH]
  • |Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |France/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Poisson Distribution[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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