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10.1007/s11739-020-02475-0

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1007/s11739-020-02475-0
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32812204!7433773!32812204
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32812204      Intern+Emerg+Med 2020 ; 15 (8): 1435-1443
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  • Utilization of machine-learning models to accurately predict the risk for critical COVID-19 #MMPMID32812204
  • Assaf D; Gutman Y; Neuman Y; Segal G; Amit S; Gefen-Halevi S; Shilo N; Epstein A; Mor-Cohen R; Biber A; Rahav G; Levy I; Tirosh A
  • Intern Emerg Med 2020[Nov]; 15 (8): 1435-1443 PMID32812204show ga
  • Among patients with Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the ability to identify patients at risk for deterioration during their hospital stay is essential for effective patient allocation and management. To predict patient risk for critical COVID-19 based on status at admission using machine-learning models. Retrospective study based on a database of tertiary medical center with designated departments for patients with COVID-19. Patients with severe COVID-19 at admission, based on low oxygen saturation, low partial arterial oxygen pressure, were excluded. The primary outcome was risk for critical disease, defined as mechanical ventilation, multi-organ failure, admission to the ICU, and/or death. Three different machine-learning models were used to predict patient deterioration and compared to currently suggested predictors and to the APACHEII risk-prediction score. Among 6995 patients evaluated, 162 were hospitalized with non-severe COVID-19, of them, 25 (15.4%) patients deteriorated to critical COVID-19. Machine-learning models outperformed the all other parameters, including the APACHE II score (ROC AUC of 0.92 vs. 0.79, respectively), reaching 88.0% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity and 92.0% accuracy in predicting critical COVID-19. The most contributory variables to the models were APACHE II score, white blood cell count, time from symptoms to admission, oxygen saturation and blood lymphocytes count. Machine-learning models demonstrated high efficacy in predicting critical COVID-19 compared to the most efficacious tools available. Hence, artificial intelligence may be applied for accurate risk prediction of patients with COVID-19, to optimize patients triage and in-hospital allocation, better prioritization of medical resources and improved overall management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • |APACHE[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*complications/diagnosis/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Critical Illness/mortality/therapy[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Machine Learning/*trends[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*complications/diagnosis/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |ROC Curve[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]


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