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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Epidemiol+Infect 2020 ; 148 (ä): e184 Nephropedia Template TP
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COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate #MMPMID32811577
Rouen A; Adda J; Roy O; Rogers E; Levy P
Epidemiol Infect 2020[Aug]; 148 (ä): e184 PMID32811577show ga
Purpose: The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures: Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Main findings: There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principal conclusions: The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come.