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10.1017/S0950268820001831

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/S0950268820001831
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32811577!7463156!32811577
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32811577      Epidemiol+Infect 2020 ; 148 (ä): e184
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  • COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate #MMPMID32811577
  • Rouen A; Adda J; Roy O; Rogers E; Levy P
  • Epidemiol Infect 2020[Aug]; 148 (ä): e184 PMID32811577show ga
  • Purpose: The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures: Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Main findings: There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principal conclusions: The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come.
  • |*Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/transmission[MESH]
  • |*Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |*Pandemics[MESH]
  • |*Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/transmission[MESH]
  • |*Temperature[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Seasons[MESH]


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