Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534
Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 J+Formos+Med+Assoc 2021 ; 120 (1 Pt 3): 679-687 Nephropedia Template TP
gab.com Text
Twit Text FOAVip
Twit Text #
English Wikipedia
Trends in adaptation of fifteen European countries population to SARS-CoV-2 in March-May 2020: Can Taiwanese experience be adopted? #MMPMID32798031
Sharov KS
J Formos Med Assoc 2021[Jan]; 120 (1 Pt 3): 679-687 PMID32798031show ga
BACKGROUND: The purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Outer (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020. RESULTS: As of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r(0) with maximum at r(0) = 4.671 and value r(eff.) = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r(0) = 5.539 and r(eff.) = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values. CONCLUSION: In case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time.