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10.3855/jidc.12844 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.3855/jidc.12844 32794459!ä!32794459 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 211.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 245.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       J+Infect+Dev+Ctries 2020 ; 14 (7): 713-720 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32794459|t=2020. Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine |pdf=|usr=}}{{32794459}} gab.com Text Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine JO: J Infect Dev Ctries http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32794459 #FOAvip INTRODUCTION: There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries. METHODOLOGY: The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals. RESULTS: It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%. CONCLUSIONS: The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals. Twit Text FOAVip Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine ????J Infect Dev Ctries http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32794459 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32794459 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32794459}}</ref> Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine #MMPMID32794459 Gul S; Tuncay K; Binici B; Aydin BB J Infect Dev Ctries 2020[Jul]; 14 (7): 713-720 PMID32794459show ga INTRODUCTION: There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries. METHODOLOGY: The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals. RESULTS: It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%. CONCLUSIONS: The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals. |*Quarantine[MESH] |Adolescent[MESH] |Adult[MESH] |Age Distribution[MESH] |Aged[MESH] |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |COVID-19 Testing[MESH] |Child[MESH] |Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis/*epidemiology/mortality/*transmission[MESH] |Family Characteristics[MESH] |Germany/epidemiology[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Italy/epidemiology[MESH] |Middle Aged[MESH] |Monte Carlo Method[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis/*epidemiology/mortality/*transmission[MESH] |Social Isolation[MESH] |Social Networking[MESH] |Turkey/epidemiology[MESH]Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey conside(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing