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10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011
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32778354!7361120!32778354
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32778354      Am+J+Prev+Med 2020 ; 59 (4): 493-503
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  • Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention #MMPMID32778354
  • Bartsch SM; O'Shea KJ; Ferguson MC; Bottazzi ME; Wedlock PT; Strych U; McKinnell JA; Siegmund SS; Cox SN; Hotez PJ; Lee BY
  • Am J Prev Med 2020[Oct]; 59 (4): 493-503 PMID32778354show ga
  • INTRODUCTION: Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing. METHODS: In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination. RESULTS: Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).
  • |*Communicable Disease Control/methods/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |*Computer Simulation[MESH]
  • |*Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |*Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |*Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |*Vaccination/methods/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Vaccines[MESH]
  • |Disease Eradication/methods/statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Needs Assessment[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Treatment Outcome[MESH]
  • |United States/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Vaccination Coverage[MESH]


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