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10.1016/j.cct.2020.106101

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.cct.2020.106101
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32771432!7409788!32771432
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32771432      Contemp+Clin+Trials 2020 ; 96 (ä): 106101
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  • The effect of preventing subclinical transmission on the containment of COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and experience in Taiwan #MMPMID32771432
  • Tsou HH; Cheng YC; Yuan HY; Hsu YT; Wu HY; Lee FJ; Hsiung CA; Chen WJ; Sytwu HK; Wu SI; Shih SM; Wen TH; Kuo SC
  • Contemp Clin Trials 2020[Sep]; 96 (ä): 106101 PMID32771432show ga
  • The control strategies preventing subclinical transmission differed among countries. A stochastic transmission model was used to assess the potential effectiveness of control strategies at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Three strategies included lack of prevention of subclinical transmission (Strategy A), partial prevention using testing with different accuracy (Strategy B) and complete prevention by isolating all at-risk people (Strategy C, Taiwan policy). The high probability of containing COVID-19 in Strategy C is observed in different scenario, had varied in the number of initial cases (5, 20, and 40), the reproduction number (1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3.5), the proportion of at-risk people being investigated (40%, 60%, 80%, to 90%), the delay from symptom onset to isolation (long and short), and the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset (<1%, 15%, and 30%). Strategy C achieved probability of 80% under advantageous scenario, such as low number of initial cases and high coverage of epidemiological investigation but Strategy B and C rarely achieved that of 60%. Considering the unsatisfactory accuracy of current testing and insufficient resources, isolation of all at-risk people, as adopted in Taiwan, could be an effective alternative.
  • |*Communicable Disease Control[MESH]
  • |Asymptomatic Infections/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/prevention & control/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infectious Disease Incubation Period[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Patient Isolation[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention & control/*transmission[MESH]
  • |Quarantine[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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