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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 251.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Aging+(Albany+NY) 2020 ; 12 (14): 13882-13894 Nephropedia Template TP
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Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China #MMPMID32727933
Ma J; Shi X; Xu W; Lv F; Wu J; Pan Q; Yang J; Yu J; Cao H; Li L
Aging (Albany NY) 2020[Jul]; 12 (14): 13882-13894 PMID32727933show ga
How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, >/=13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 x 10(9)/L (1 point), age >/= 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 x 10(9) /L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.