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10.18632/aging.103694

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.18632/aging.103694
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32727933!7425460!32727933
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32727933      Aging+(Albany+NY) 2020 ; 12 (14): 13882-13894
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  • Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China #MMPMID32727933
  • Ma J; Shi X; Xu W; Lv F; Wu J; Pan Q; Yang J; Yu J; Cao H; Li L
  • Aging (Albany NY) 2020[Jul]; 12 (14): 13882-13894 PMID32727933show ga
  • How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, >/=13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL: radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 x 10(9)/L (1 point), age >/= 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 x 10(9) /L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |China[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/blood/*diagnosis/pathology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/blood/*diagnosis/pathology[MESH]
  • |Predictive Value of Tests[MESH]
  • |Risk Assessment/methods[MESH]
  • |Risk Factors[MESH]


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