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10.1371/journal.pone.0236860

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1371/journal.pone.0236860
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32726361!7390340!32726361
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32726361      PLoS+One 2020 ; 15 (7): e0236860
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  • Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information #MMPMID32726361
  • Lee SY; Lei B; Mallick B
  • PLoS One 2020[]; 15 (7): e0236860 PMID32726361show ga
  • Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no drugs or other therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to prevent or treat COVID-19: information on the disease is very limited and scattered even if it exists. This motivates the use of data integration, combining data from diverse sources and eliciting useful information with a unified view of them. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates global data for real-time prediction of infection trajectory for multiple countries. Because the proposed model takes advantage of borrowing information across multiple countries, it outperforms an existing individual country-based model. As fully Bayesian way has been adopted, the model provides a powerful predictive tool endowed with uncertainty quantification. Additionally, a joint variable selection technique has been integrated into the proposed modeling scheme, which aimed to identify possible country-level risk factors for severe disease due to COVID-19.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |Bayes Theorem[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Global Health/*trends[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Prognosis[MESH]
  • |Risk Factors[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Travel[MESH]


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