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The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why? #MMPMID32718950
Van Damme W; Dahake R; Delamou A; Ingelbeen B; Wouters E; Vanham G; van de Pas R; Dossou JP; Ir P; Abimbola S; Van der Borght S; Narayanan D; Bloom G; Van Engelgem I; Ag Ahmed MA; Kiendrebeogo JA; Verdonck K; De Brouwere V; Bello K; Kloos H; Aaby P; Kalk A; Al-Awlaqi S; Prashanth NS; Muyembe-Tamfum JJ; Mbala P; Ahuka-Mundeke S; Assefa Y
BMJ Glob Health 2020[Jul]; 5 (7): ä PMID32718950show ga
It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.
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BMJ+Glob+Health 2020 ; 5 (7): ä
