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10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546
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32705975!7470592!32705975
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32705975      Am+J+Trop+Med+Hyg 2020 ; 103 (3): 1191-1197
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  • Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda #MMPMID32705975
  • Bell D; Hansen KS; Kiragga AN; Kambugu A; Kissa J; Mbonye AK
  • Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020[Sep]; 103 (3): 1191-1197 PMID32705975show ga
  • The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |*Public Health[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |Cost of Illness[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Infant, Newborn[MESH]
  • |Malaria/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Maternal Mortality[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/mortality[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Uganda/epidemiology[MESH]


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