Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil #MMPMID32703910
Candido DS; Claro IM; de Jesus JG; Souza WM; Moreira FRR; Dellicour S; Mellan TA; du Plessis L; Pereira RHM; Sales FCS; Manuli ER; Theze J; Almeida L; Menezes MT; Voloch CM; Fumagalli MJ; Coletti TM; da Silva CAM; Ramundo MS; Amorim MR; Hoeltgebaum HH; Mishra S; Gill MS; Carvalho LM; Buss LF; Prete CA Jr; Ashworth J; Nakaya HI; Peixoto PS; Brady OJ; Nicholls SM; Tanuri A; Rossi AD; Braga CKV; Gerber AL; de C Guimaraes AP; Gaburo N Jr; Alencar CS; Ferreira ACS; Lima CX; Levi JE; Granato C; Ferreira GM; Francisco RS Jr; Granja F; Garcia MT; Moretti ML; Perroud MW Jr; Castineiras TMPP; Lazari CS; Hill SC; de Souza Santos AA; Simeoni CL; Forato J; Sposito AC; Schreiber AZ; Santos MNN; de Sa CZ; Souza RP; Resende-Moreira LC; Teixeira MM; Hubner J; Leme PAF; Moreira RG; Nogueira ML; Ferguson NM; Costa SF; Proenca-Modena JL; Vasconcelos ATR; Bhatt S; Lemey P; Wu CH; Rambaut A; Loman NJ; Aguiar RS; Pybus OG; Sabino EC; Faria NR
Science 2020[Sep]; 369 (6508): 1255-1260 PMID32703910show ga
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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Science 2020 ; 369 (6508): 1255-1260
