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The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence #MMPMID32700472
Hofmann B
J Eval Clin Pract 2020[Oct]; 26 (5): 1344-1346 PMID32700472show ga
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 has posed a wide range of urgent questions: about the disease, testing, immunity, treatments, and outcomes. Extreme situations, such as pandemics, call for exceptional measures. However, this threatens the production and application of evidence. METHODS: This article applies standard categories in epistemology to analyse the pandemic in terms of four kinds of uncertainty: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance, and Ambiguity. RESULTS: Mapping the uncertainties of the pandemic onto the four types of uncertainty directs evidence production towards specific tasks in order to address the challenges of the pandemic: Eliminating ambiguity, being alert to the unknown, and gathering data to estimate risks are crucial to preserve evidence and save lives. CONCLUSION: In order to avoid fake facts and to provide sustainable solutions, we need to pay attention to the various kinds of uncertainty. Producing high-quality evidence is the solution, not the problem.