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10.1098/rsif.2020.0144 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1098/rsif.2020.0144 32693748!7423425!32693748     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 265.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 298.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       J+R+Soc+Interface 2020 ; 17 (168): 20200144 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32693748|t=2020. Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak |pdf=|usr=}}{{32693748}} gab.com Text Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak JO: J R Soc Interface http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32693748 #FOAvip A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged as a global threat in December 2019. As the epidemic progresses, disease modellers continue to focus on estimating the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text]-the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible population. The modelling approaches and resulting estimates of [Formula: see text] during the beginning of the outbreak vary widely, despite relying on similar data sources. Here, we present a statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of [Formula: see text] across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate, the mean generation interval and the generation-interval dispersion. We apply our framework to early estimates of [Formula: see text] for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, showing that many [Formula: see text] estimates are overly confident. Our results emphasize the importance of propagating uncertainties in all components of [Formula: see text], including the shape of the generation-interval distribution, in efforts to estimate [Formula: see text] at the outset of an epidemic. Twit Text FOAVip Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak ????J R Soc Interface http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32693748 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32693748 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32693748}}</ref> Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak #MMPMID32693748 Park SW; Bolker BM; Champredon D; Earn DJD; Li M; Weitz JS; Grenfell BT; Dushoff J J R Soc Interface 2020[Jul]; 17 (168): 20200144 PMID32693748show ga A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged as a global threat in December 2019. As the epidemic progresses, disease modellers continue to focus on estimating the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text]-the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible population. The modelling approaches and resulting estimates of [Formula: see text] during the beginning of the outbreak vary widely, despite relying on similar data sources. Here, we present a statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of [Formula: see text] across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate, the mean generation interval and the generation-interval dispersion. We apply our framework to early estimates of [Formula: see text] for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, showing that many [Formula: see text] estimates are overly confident. Our results emphasize the importance of propagating uncertainties in all components of [Formula: see text], including the shape of the generation-interval distribution, in efforts to estimate [Formula: see text] at the outset of an epidemic. |*Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |*Betacoronavirus[MESH] |*Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |*Models, Biological[MESH] |Bayes Theorem[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |China/epidemiology[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission[MESH] |Epidemics/statistics & numerical data[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Markov Chains[MESH] |Monte Carlo Method[MESH] |Pandemics[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/*transmission[MESH] |Probability[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing