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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Emerg+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 26 (10): 2361-2369 Nephropedia Template TP
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Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA #MMPMID32692648
Wang X; Pasco RF; Du Z; Petty M; Fox SJ; Galvani AP; Pignone M; Johnston SC; Meyers LA
Emerg Infect Dis 2020[Oct]; 26 (10): 2361-2369 PMID32692648show ga
Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.