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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 267.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Infect+Dis+Model 2020 ; 5 (ä): 409-441 Nephropedia Template TP
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example #MMPMID32691015
Overton CE; Stage HB; Ahmad S; Curran-Sebastian J; Dark P; Das R; Fearon E; Felton T; Fyles M; Gent N; Hall I; House T; Lewkowicz H; Pang X; Pellis L; Sawko R; Ustianowski A; Vekaria B; Webb L
Infect Dis Model 2020[]; 5 (ä): 409-441 PMID32691015show ga
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19, we provide a toolkit of statistical and mathematical models beyond the simple SIR-type differential equation models for analysing the early stages of an outbreak and assessing interventions. In particular, we focus on parameter estimation in the presence of known biases in the data, and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in enclosed subpopulations, such as households and care homes. We illustrate these methods by applying them to the COVID-19 pandemic.