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10.1016/j.cmi.2020.07.013

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.cmi.2020.07.013
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32688068      Clin+Microbiol+Infect 2020 ; 26 (11): 1514-1519
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  • Low prevalence of active COVID-19 in Slovenia: a nationwide population study of a probability-based sample #MMPMID32688068
  • Maver Vodicar P; Ostrbenk Valencak A; Zupan B; Avsic Zupanc T; Kurdija S; Korva M; Petrovec M; Demsar J; Knap N; Strumbelj E; Vehovar V; Poljak M
  • Clin Microbiol Infect 2020[Nov]; 26 (11): 1514-1519 PMID32688068show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: Accurate population-level assessment of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) burden is fundamental for navigating the path forward during the ongoing pandemic, but current knowledge is scant. We conducted the first nationwide population study using a probability-based sample to assess active severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, combined with a longitudinal follow-up of the entire cohort over the next 6 months. Baseline SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing results and the first 3-week follow-up results are presented. METHODS: A probability-based sample of the Slovenian population comprising data from 2.1 million people was selected from the Central Population Register (n = 3000). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in nasopharyngeal samples using the cobas 6800 SARS-CoV-2 assay. Each participant filled in a detailed baseline questionnaire with basic sociodemographic data and detailed medical history compatible with COVID-19. After 3 weeks, participants were interviewed for the presence of COVID-19-compatible clinical symptoms and signs, including in household members, and offered immediate testing for SARS-CoV-2 RNA if indicated. RESULTS: A total of 1368 individuals (46%) consented to participate and completed the questionnaire. Two of 1366 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA (prevalence 0.15%; posterior mean 0.18%, 95% Bayesian confidence interval 0.03-0.47; 95% highest density region (HDR) 0.01-0.41). No newly diagnosed infections occurred in the cohort during the first 3-week follow-up round. CONCLUSIONS: The low prevalence of active COVID-19 infections found in this study accurately predicted the dynamics of the epidemic in Slovenia over the subsequent month. Properly designed and timely executed studies using probability-based samples combined with routine target-testing figures provide reliable data that can be used to make informed decisions on relaxing or strengthening disease mitigation strategies.
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Aged, 80 and over[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |COVID-19 Testing[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Clinical Laboratory Techniques[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus/isolation & purification[MESH]
  • |Epidemiological Monitoring[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Follow-Up Studies[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Nasopharynx/virology[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Prevalence[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Slovenia/epidemiology[MESH]


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