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10.1017/dmp.2020.254

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1017/dmp.2020.254
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32674742!7411445!32674742
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32674742      Disaster+Med+Public+Health+Prep 2021 ; 15 (1): e10-e14
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  • Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Infection Trend Using Technical Analysis Indicators #MMPMID32674742
  • Paroli M; Sirinian MI
  • Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021[Feb]; 15 (1): e10-e14 PMID32674742show ga
  • OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread. METHODS: Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran, and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: (1) the combined use of a faster (3-d) and a slower (20-d) simple moving averages (SMA), (2) the moving average converge/divergence (MACD), and (3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram. RESULTS: We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the 3 countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared. CONCLUSIONS: TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward, or sideward.
  • |*Models, Economic[MESH]
  • |Brazil/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19/*economics/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Iran/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Italy/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*economics/*epidemiology/virology[MESH]
  • |Predictive Value of Tests[MESH]


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