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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 310.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Infect+Dis+Model 2020 ; 5 (ä): 362-365 Nephropedia Template TP
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Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it #MMPMID32666004
Killeen GF
Infect Dis Model 2020[]; 5 (ä): 362-365 PMID32666004show ga
Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic trajectories include China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia. However, the United States and many hard-hit European countries, like Ireland, Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, currently appear content to merely flatten the curve of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with. Here I present a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that are accessible to non-specialists and explain why preferable crush the curve strategies, to eliminate transmission within months, would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort relative to the tipping point targeted by flatten the curve strategies, which allow epidemics to persist at supposedly steady, manageable levels for years, decades or even indefinitely.