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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 231.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Nat+Med 2020 ; 26 (9): 1417-1421 Nephropedia Template TP
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A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France #MMPMID32665655
Hoertel N; Blachier M; Blanco C; Olfson M; Massetti M; Rico MS; Limosin F; Leleu H
Nat Med 2020[Sep]; 26 (9): 1417-1421 PMID32665655show ga
Many European countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing nationwide protection measures and lockdowns(1). However, the epidemic could rebound when such measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a requirement for a second or more, repeated lockdowns(2). Here, we present results of a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of post-lockdown measures, including physical distancing, mask-wearing and shielding individuals who are the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on cumulative disease incidence and mortality, and on intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy. While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if most people do not adhere to these measures, or if they are not maintained for a sufficiently long period.
Nat+Med 2020 ; 26 (9): 1417-1421
