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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 247.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 PeerJ 2020 ; 8 (ä): e9482 Nephropedia Template TP
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Hemogram data as a tool for decision-making in COVID-19 management: applications to resource scarcity scenarios #MMPMID32656001
Avila E; Kahmann A; Alho C; Dorn M
PeerJ 2020[]; 8 (ä): e9482 PMID32656001show ga
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity. PURPOSE: This work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used to predict qRT-PCR test results. METHODS: Hemogram exams data from 510 symptomatic patients (73 positives and 437 negatives) were used to model and predict qRT-PCR results through Naive-Bayes algorithms. Different scarcity scenarios were simulated, including symptomatic essential workforce management and absence of diagnostic tests. Adjusts in assumed prior probabilities allow fine-tuning of the model, according to actual prediction context. RESULTS: Proposed models can predict COVID-19 qRT-PCR results in symptomatic individuals with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, yielding a 100% sensitivity and 22.6% specificity with a prior of 0.9999; 76.7% for both sensitivity and specificity with a prior of 0.2933; and 0% sensitivity and 100% specificity with a prior of 0.001. Regarding background scarcity context, resources allocation can be significantly improved when model-based patient selection is observed, compared to random choice. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models can be derived from widely available, quick, and inexpensive exam data in order to predict qRT-PCR results used in COVID-19 diagnosis. These models can be used to assist strategic decision-making in resource scarcity scenarios, including personnel shortage, lack of medical resources, and testing insufficiency.