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10.5414/CP203846 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.5414/CP203846 32646540!ä!32646540 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 209.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 243.2 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 276.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 276.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 276.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 276.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 276.79999999999995 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 310.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 310.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 310.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 310.4 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Int+J+Clin+Pharmacol+Ther 2020 ; 58 (8): 417-425 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32646540|t=2020. COVID-19 pandemic predictions using the modified Bateman SIZ model and observational data for Heidelberg, Germany: Effect of vaccination with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, coronavirus testing and application of the Corona-Warn-App |pdf=|usr=}}{{32646540}} gab.com Text COVID-19 pandemic predictions using the modified Bateman SIZ model and observational data for Heidelberg, Germany: Effect of vaccination with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, coronavirus testing and application of the Corona-Warn-App JO: Int J Clin Pharmacol Ther http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32646540 #FOAvip AIMS OF THE STUDY: Published data show that the current progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Heidelberg, Germany, despite the current lockdown, could continue into 2021 and become more severe. We have used the modified Bateman SIZ algorithm to predict the effects of interventional measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Model parameters, e.g., doubling time and rate of decrease in the number of infectious persons were obtained from published reports. Predictions were made for the status quo on June 1, 2020, and for interventional measures obtained for 4 scenarios. These included vaccination of the whole population using a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine having an efficacy of 50% and 100%, mass-testing for COVID-19 coronavirus and application of the Corona-Warn-App. RESULTS: The principle findings were 1) without new measures to control the pandemic, the daily number of infectious persons could reach a peak of > 4,500 daily within 18 months when > 67,000 persons would have been infected. This could be prevented by using a vaccine with 50% efficacy which was almost equally effective as a vaccine with 100% efficacy. Application of the Corona-Warn-App was the most effective method and more effective than testing for COVID-19. The methodology used has been described in detail to enable other researchers to apply the modified Bateman SIZ model to obtain predictions for COVID-19 outbreaks in other regions. Application of the model has been verified by independent investigators using different commercial software packages. CONCLUSION: The modified Bateman SIZ model has been verified and used to predict the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Heidelberg. Lockdown measures alone are insufficient to control the pandemic during 2021. Vaccination, diagnostic tests, and use of the Corona-Warn-App with quarantine could successfully control the spread of the coronavirus infection in the community. The Corona-Warn-App applied correctly may be the most effective. The model showed that vaccination with 50% efficacy is almost as effective as vaccination with 100% efficacy. Twit Text FOAVip COVID-19 pandemic predictions using the modified Bateman SIZ model and observational data for Heidelberg, Germany: Effect of vaccination with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, coronavirus testing and application of the Corona-Warn-App ????Int J Clin Pharmacol Ther http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32646540 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32646540 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32646540}}</ref> COVID-19 pandemic predictions using the modified Bateman SIZ model and observational data for Heidelberg, Germany: Effect of vaccination with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, coronavirus testing and application of the Corona-Warn-App #MMPMID32646540 Braun P; Haffner S; Woodcock BG Int J Clin Pharmacol Ther 2020[Aug]; 58 (8): 417-425 PMID32646540show ga AIMS OF THE STUDY: Published data show that the current progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Heidelberg, Germany, despite the current lockdown, could continue into 2021 and become more severe. We have used the modified Bateman SIZ algorithm to predict the effects of interventional measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Model parameters, e.g., doubling time and rate of decrease in the number of infectious persons were obtained from published reports. Predictions were made for the status quo on June 1, 2020, and for interventional measures obtained for 4 scenarios. These included vaccination of the whole population using a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine having an efficacy of 50% and 100%, mass-testing for COVID-19 coronavirus and application of the Corona-Warn-App. RESULTS: The principle findings were 1) without new measures to control the pandemic, the daily number of infectious persons could reach a peak of > 4,500 daily within 18 months when > 67,000 persons would have been infected. This could be prevented by using a vaccine with 50% efficacy which was almost equally effective as a vaccine with 100% efficacy. Application of the Corona-Warn-App was the most effective method and more effective than testing for COVID-19. The methodology used has been described in detail to enable other researchers to apply the modified Bateman SIZ model to obtain predictions for COVID-19 outbreaks in other regions. Application of the model has been verified by independent investigators using different commercial software packages. CONCLUSION: The modified Bateman SIZ model has been verified and used to predict the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Heidelberg. Lockdown measures alone are insufficient to control the pandemic during 2021. Vaccination, diagnostic tests, and use of the Corona-Warn-App with quarantine could successfully control the spread of the coronavirus infection in the community. The Corona-Warn-App applied correctly may be the most effective. The model showed that vaccination with 50% efficacy is almost as effective as vaccination with 100% efficacy. |*Models, Statistical[MESH] |Algorithms[MESH] |Betacoronavirus[MESH] |COVID-19[MESH] |COVID-19 Testing[MESH] |COVID-19 Vaccines[MESH] |Clinical Laboratory Techniques[MESH] |Communicable Disease Control[MESH] |Contact Tracing/instrumentation[MESH] |Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis/*epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH] |Germany[MESH] |Humans[MESH] |Mass Screening[MESH] |Mobile Applications[MESH] |Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH] |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention & control[MESH] |SARS-CoV-2[MESH] |Vaccination[MESH]COVID-19 pandemic predictions using the modified Bateman SIZ model and(epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing