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10.1016/j.ebiom.2020.102880

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.ebiom.2020.102880
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32645614      EBioMedicine 2020 ; 57 (ä): 102880
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  • Development and validation of the HNC-LL score for predicting the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 #MMPMID32645614
  • Xiao LS; Zhang WF; Gong MC; Zhang YP; Chen LY; Zhu HB; Hu CY; Kang P; Liu L; Zhu H
  • EBioMedicine 2020[Jul]; 57 (ä): 102880 PMID32645614show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Information regarding risk factors associated with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is limited. This study aimed to develop a model for predicting COVID-19 severity. METHODS: Overall, 690 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were recruited between 1 January and 18 March 2020 from hospitals in Honghu and Nanchang; finally, 442 patients were assessed. Data were categorised into the training and test sets to develop and validate the model, respectively. FINDINGS: A predictive HNC-LL (Hypertension, Neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, Lymphocyte count, Lactate dehydrogenase) score was established using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HNC-LL score accurately predicted disease severity in the Honghu training cohort (area under the curve [AUC]=0.861, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.800-0.922; P<0.001); Honghu internal validation cohort (AUC=0.871, 95% CI: 0.769-0.972; P<0.001); and Nanchang external validation cohort (AUC=0.826, 95% CI: 0.746-0.907; P<0.001) and outperformed other models, including CURB-65 (confusion, uraemia, respiratory rate, BP, age >/=65 years) score model, MuLBSTA (multilobular infiltration, hypo-lymphocytosis, bacterial coinfection, smoking history, hypertension, and age) score model, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio model. The clinical significance of HNC-LL in accurately predicting the risk of future development of severe COVID-19 was confirmed. INTERPRETATION: We developed an accurate tool for predicting disease severity among COVID-19 patients. This model can potentially be used to identify patients at risks of developing severe disease in the early stage and therefore guide treatment decisions. FUNDING: This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (grant no. 81972897) and Guangdong Province Universities and Colleges Pearl River Scholar Funded Scheme (2015).
  • |*Severity of Illness Index[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |C-Reactive Protein/analysis[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*diagnosis/*pathology[MESH]
  • |Cytokine Release Syndrome/pathology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Hypertension/pathology[MESH]
  • |L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/analysis[MESH]
  • |Lymphocyte Count[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Neutrophils/cytology[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*diagnosis/*pathology[MESH]
  • |Prognosis[MESH]
  • |Retrospective Studies[MESH]


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