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10.1073/pnas.2008373117

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1073/pnas.2008373117
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32632012!7395516!32632012
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32632012      Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A 2020 ; 117 (30): 17513-17515
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  • The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks #MMPMID32632012
  • Moghadas SM; Fitzpatrick MC; Sah P; Pandey A; Shoukat A; Singer BH; Galvani AP
  • Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020[Jul]; 117 (30): 17513-17515 PMID32632012show ga
  • Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections. We found that the majority of incidences may be attributable to silent transmission from a combination of the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections. Consequently, even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, a vast outbreak may nonetheless unfold. We further quantified the effect of isolating silent infections in addition to symptomatic cases, finding that over one-third of silent infections must be isolated to suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population. Our results indicate that symptom-based isolation must be supplemented by rapid contact tracing and testing that identifies asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, in order to safely lift current restrictions and minimize the risk of resurgence.
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Asymptomatic Infections/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Betacoronavirus/*isolation & purification[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |Contact Tracing/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*prevention & control/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Female[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Incidence[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Infant, Newborn[MESH]
  • |Infection Control/*methods[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/*prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*prevention & control/*transmission/virology[MESH]
  • |Quarantine/*statistics & numerical data[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]


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