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  • A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 #MMPMID32576668
  • Britton T; Ball F; Trapman P
  • Science 2020[Aug]; 369 (6505): 846-849 PMID32576668show ga
  • Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020, many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Using a model, we show that population heterogeneity can affect disease-induced immunity considerably because the proportion of infected individuals in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R 0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be ~43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |*Immunity, Herd[MESH]
  • |*Models, Theoretical[MESH]
  • |Age Factors[MESH]
  • |Basic Reproduction Number[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*immunology/prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |Demography[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pandemics/prevention & control[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*immunology/prevention & control/transmission[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Social Behavior[MESH]
  • |Social Participation[MESH]

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  • suck abstract from ncbi

    846 6505.369 2020