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Mortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox #MMPMID32564639
Harrison G; Newport D; Robbins T; Arvanitis TN; Stein A
J Int Med Res 2020[Jun]; 48 (6): 300060520931298 PMID32564639show ga
OBJECTIVE: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality. METHODS: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates. RESULTS: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the "SARS-CoV-2 paradox." We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.
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J+Int+Med+Res 2020 ; 48 (6): 300060520931298
