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10.1093/cid/ciaa790

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32556265!7337632!32556265
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32556265      Clin+Infect+Dis 2020 ; 71 (12): 3163-3167
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  • Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection #MMPMID32556265
  • Xu XK; Liu XF; Wu Y; Ali ST; Du Z; Bosetti P; Lau EHY; Cowling BJ; Wang L
  • Clin Infect Dis 2020[Dec]; 71 (12): 3163-3167 PMID32556265show ga
  • BACKGROUND: Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics. METHODS: A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January-29 February 2020. Statistical model fittings were used to identify the superspreading events and estimate serial interval distributions. Age- and sex-stratified hazards of infection were estimated for household vs nonhousehold transmissions. RESULTS: There were 34 primary cases identified as superspreaders, with 5 superspreading events occurred within households. Mean and standard deviation of serial intervals were estimated as 5.0 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4.4-5.5) days and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for household transmissions and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.6-5.8) and 5.3 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for nonhousehold transmissions, respectively. The hazard of being infected outside of households is higher for people aged 18-64 years, whereas hazard of being infected within households is higher for young and old people. CONCLUSIONS: Nonnegligible frequency of superspreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of working age indicate a significant barrier to the identification and management of COVID-19 cases, which requires enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate this pandemic.
  • |*COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Adolescent[MESH]
  • |Adult[MESH]
  • |Aged[MESH]
  • |Child[MESH]
  • |Child, Preschool[MESH]
  • |China[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Infant[MESH]
  • |Male[MESH]
  • |Middle Aged[MESH]
  • |Pandemics[MESH]
  • |SARS-CoV-2[MESH]
  • |Travel[MESH]


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