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10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109302 http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109302 32546878!7282785!32546878     free     free     free Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534       Econ+Lett 2020 ; 193 (ä): 109302 Nephropedia Template TP {{tp|p=32546878|t=2020. Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty |pdf=|usr=}}{{32546878}} gab.com Text Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty JO: Econ Lett http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32546878 #FOAvip This letter highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that the two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up to 7 months ahead and becomes the second best predictor - after the yield curve slope - at longer horizons. Using data up to end-2018, out-of-sample forecasts show that uncertainty has significantly contributed to lower the probability of a recession in 2019, which indeed did not occur. Twit Text FOAVip Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty ????Econ Lett http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32546878 #FOAvip Twit Text # Free Paper on # # # # # LINK http://www.kidney.de/pget.php?&tw=1&pmid=32546878 #FOAvip English Wikipedia <ref>{{Cite pmid|32546878}}</ref> Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty #MMPMID32546878 Ercolani V; Natoli F Econ Lett 2020[Aug]; 193 (ä): 109302 PMID32546878show ga This letter highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that the two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up to 7 months ahead and becomes the second best predictor - after the yield curve slope - at longer horizons. Using data up to end-2018, out-of-sample forecasts show that uncertainty has significantly contributed to lower the probability of a recession in 2019, which indeed did not occur. äForecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty (epmc).pdf DeepDyve Pubget Overpricing