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10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020

http://scihub22266oqcxt.onion/10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
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32520235!7269522!32520235
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suck abstract from ncbi


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pmid32520235      Rev+Soc+Bras+Med+Trop 2020 ; 53 (ä): e20200283
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  • Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt s model #MMPMID32520235
  • Martinez EZ; Aragon DC; Nunes AA
  • Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2020[]; 53 (ä): e20200283 PMID32520235show ga
  • INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
  • |*Betacoronavirus[MESH]
  • |*Models, Statistical[MESH]
  • |*Pandemics[MESH]
  • |Brazil/epidemiology[MESH]
  • |COVID-19[MESH]
  • |Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology[MESH]
  • |Forecasting/*methods[MESH]
  • |Humans[MESH]
  • |Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology[MESH]


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