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Deprecated: Implicit conversion from float 217.6 to int loses precision in C:\Inetpub\vhosts\kidney.de\httpdocs\pget.php on line 534 Rev+Soc+Bras+Med+Trop 2020 ; 53 (ä): e20200283 Nephropedia Template TP
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Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt s model #MMPMID32520235
Martinez EZ; Aragon DC; Nunes AA
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2020[]; 53 (ä): e20200283 PMID32520235show ga
INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.